The South African rand strengthened to R15.79/$ on Wednesday morning — a 25% gain since its low of R19.74 in April 2025. Year-to-date, it’s up nearly 5%.
Trump’s Impact
The surge is driven by dollar weakness across global currencies.
US President Donald Trump’s threats of trade tariffs against Canada and South Korea have rattled markets.
Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence ahead of Trump’s new Fed chair pick are fueling uncertainty.
Gold prices hit $5,300/oz, with 45 record closes in 2025 and 14 of 18 trading days in January setting new highs.
Analysts compare the rally to the 1970s gold bull market, also triggered by US monetary policy fears.
The rand hasn’t closed stronger than R15.80 since June 2022.
SA’s prime interest rate peaked at 11.75% in May 2023, now down to 10.25%.
Nedbank analysts predict a push to R15.70, but warn of possible profit-taking.
James Luke, Schroders portfolio manager:
“This 65% gold price gain dwarfs anything seen in the 2000s bull market.”
